Causes of weather anomalies. What's going on with the weather? Causes and consequences of climate change. Global warming: what is it

British professor Paul Williams took a close look at the video of the Moscow hurricane. Is this really going to be the norm in our latitudes? What Muscovites have experienced this week can easily repeat itself, as the world itself is changing along with climate change.

I don’t want to believe that according to these indicators, our country will catch up and surpass America, where hurricanes are a common thing. Every inhabitant of the central part of Russia is worried about the question: where did the summer go and when will it finally appear?

Meteorologists assure that summer will come and even give Moscow heat. However, it is worth hoping that this fever will not be abnormal either. Residents of the capital come to their senses after. Few of those who in the morning inquired about the weather forecast could see something frightening there - a forecast as a forecast. The hydrometeorological center on May 29 promised the townspeople cloud cover, a small thunderstorm and a westerly wind at a speed of 12 meters per second.

It seemed that in order to protect yourself from the vagaries of nature, it was enough just to take an umbrella with you. But at 15:00, the suddenly rising wind began to pull the umbrellas out of the hands of those who were not lucky enough to be on the street, and in a matter of minutes it was not even the wind, but a real hurricane, also playfully uprooting and throwing trees along the streets, demolishing roofs and felling power lines ... Not that the forecasters were wrong in their forecasts - in the Moscow region the wind really blew at the promised speed. But what is called the effect of a wind tunnel happened in the capital: on long streets, avenues and highways, the air stream squeezed by high-rise buildings accelerated to a hurricane of 30 meters per second and swept through the capital from west to east in a crushing squall, sweeping away everything in its path. After a terrible storm, Moscow resembled the set of a disaster movie, and the city authorities were calculating the damage done: 243 houses were damaged, more than 2,000 cars were smashed, 14,000 trees fell.

All this, of course, is fixable: houses can be repaired, and you can get insurance for dented cars, but it is already impossible to return those that have become. 11-year-old Anya Makeeva played in the yard on the playground, student Dasha Antonova hurried home from lectures, and pensioner Nikolai Kotov was waiting for the bus at the bus stop. Perhaps all of them would have survived if they had received an SMS that day warning that it was dangerous to go outside.

It is unlikely that their relatives and friends will be comforted by the fact that such a devastating hurricane in Moscow has never happened in the last 100 years. For a long time there was no such cold spring, which has now turned into the same. Scientists say that what we saw this week in Moscow can easily repeat itself - after all, along with climate change in the world, the world itself is changing.

So is this really going to be the norm in our latitudes? Details - in the report nTV correspondent Andrey Sukhanov.

Questions about what is happening with the weather are already being born even in the minds of people far from meteorology and science in general. Why? It's hard not to notice that something is wrong with the weather in Russia. Is it serious?

Summer in Russia 2017

In June 2017, the weather in Russia threw out the first feint. When residents of central Russia were planning to open the shorts and T-shirts season, the weather gave them a surprise. It was raining all month, and the weather was autumn, even snow fell, what shorts are already here. But in the northern regions of Russia at that time there was an unprecedented heat for that region.

In July 2017, summer warming came abruptly, there was an unprecedented heat. And only August was more or less like itself, it was about 25 degrees Celsius. And then, completely unheard of, in September 2017 a hurricane swept through Moscow. Tornadoes also swept through Tatarstan and the Urals.

Many remember the abnormal heat of 2010, the next year everything returned to normal. What is happening with the weather now and what will happen in the summer of 2018?

What winter will be like in Russia

The Russians joke that they expect the heat, which they did not receive in June, in December. And what forecasts are given by meteorologists?

Europe was shocked by the statement of the scientist James Madden that the winter of 2017-2018 will be very harsh, moreover, the coldest in the last 100 years. In his opinion, the countdown of a new climatic period can begin this year. In Russia, there will no longer be mild winters with an air temperature of -5 ° C, but as before at least -25-30 ° C. Cold snap will affect Europe too.

Russian meteorologists are not so categorical and say that the winter will be average, but the snow will fall early, even in the autumn months. Wild cold weather is not promised, the only thing is that the temperature will drop sharply. But few meteorologists deny that the climate is changing.

Is it only in Russia that strange weather happens?

In 2017, something is happening with the weather not only in Russia. In late summer, Hurricane Irma swept along the coast of Florida and the Pacific Islands of unheard of duration.

In June, Bangladesh experienced severe floods.

In the summer in Japan, the thermometer passed the 40 ° C mark. Many Japanese were admitted to the hospital with heatstroke, as they were not used to the heat.

What is the cause of the anomalies

The reason for what is happening to the weather (2017), and such sharp climate changes, is considered to be an unprecedented increase in temperature in the Pacific Ocean by 1 ° C in recent years. It would seem a trifling increase, but it led to the fact that the temperature in the Arctic increased by as much as 3 ° C. And now a powerful cold cyclone is heading towards Europe and Russia.

For a person far from meteorology, a reasonable question arises: how does warming in the Arctic cause a cold snap on the continent of Eurasia? Here's the thing. When flows warm air sharply collide with the currents of the arctic air, then the currents of a denser and heavier cold air repel far beyond the arctic continent. The stronger this collision, the more curved the air guide becomes and the further the cold air flows from the Arctic are thrown. This process is scientifically called meridional transfer. air masses... It is he who is to blame for the fact that in some places the globe the weather can become unpredictable. For example, in May in central Russia this flow slowed down the arrival of a warm cyclone, and the weather “froze” and did not change at the usual time.

Due to such a meridional transfer of air masses, cold air flows, which usually do not reach the European part of Eurasia, can reach in the winter of 2017. Then it will become unusually cold on this continent. And the fault of such processes, no matter how paradoxical it sounds, is global warming.

Global Warming: What Is It?

The phenomenon of global warming is named not quite correctly, it would be more correct to sound “global warming of the world ocean”. Warming does not occur on the entire planet at the same time, but in the world's oceans.

As you know from the school curriculum, the ocean has a huge impact on the weather. How? Gigantic masses of water, heating up, evaporate, such a quantity of steam has a crazy amount of energy. This energy forms the air currents that control the weather. This is how wind flows are born, which carry clouds, they become clouds and then rain down all over the planet. Water on the planet is in an eternal cycle, freezing, evaporating, moving. But all the water that is now on the planet is actually the same that dinosaurs and mammoths drank.

But why did nature behave this way, why is there global warming of the ocean? This is due to the greenhouse effect.

Greenhouse effect: consequences and causes

To make cucumbers and tomatoes ripen faster in the climate middle Russia, housewives use greenhouses. By their example, you can understand how it works greenhouse effect... The earth evaporates moisture, thus generating heat, but the heat cannot completely leave the greenhouse, and due to this, the temperature under the film becomes higher than outside. This is due to the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air.

The greenhouse effect itself is not the source of all the world's ills. What's more, no greenhouse effect average temperature on Earth would reach -18 ° C and life would hardly be possible in the form in which it is now. When the Earth was still young, there was so much carbon dioxide in the air that the ocean temperature was close to its boiling point. But with the advent of plants, the concentration of carbon dioxide decreased, and there was a harmony of carbon dioxide and oxygen, in which the life of creatures such as mammals became possible.

But lately, human industrial activity has increased the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the air. The air temperature began to rise again. Over the 20th century, the average temperature on the planet has increased by almost 1 ° C, and the growth rate is increasing. Yes, it is still far from the boiling point, but what will happen to the climate in 10 years? And after 1000?

Have there been climatic disasters on the planet?

Many will remember that dinosaurs did not die by their own death. They were destroyed by the ice age. And what is interesting, this is not the first and certainly not the last climatic disaster on Earth:

1. The first of them happened even when there was no life on Earth, 4.5 billion years ago. Presumably there was a strong collision with a planet the size of Mars. As a result, a part broke off from the Earth, which later became the moon.
2. About 850 million years ago, the entire surface of the Earth was covered with ice, no less than 250 million years. And this would have continued to this day, if the ice was not melted by the awakened volcanoes.
3. But because of these same volcanoes, another climatic catastrophe occurred in the future. Thanks to excavations in the Perm Territory, it was established that 250 million years ago something happened on Earth that killed almost all living things. Only 5% of living organisms remain on Earth. Some of them died under the burning lava, and some suffocated from carbon dioxide, which was emitted during the eruptions. The earth recovered only after 30 million years.
4. And finally, the last catastrophe that happened 65 million years ago and killed the dinosaurs. Unlike previous catastrophes, this mass extinction is more difficult to explain. Geologists could not find any visible changes. Here one can only put forward theories, the most popular is the fall of an asteroid, which caused fires that obscured the sun with its smoke. The temperature dropped sharply on Earth, and the dinosaurs became extinct.

Climate catastrophe forecasts

Scientists made a lot of such predictions until they came true. But if it comes, it will look like this:

1. The temperature will rise inexorably.
2. All glaciers on the planet will melt.
3. Cities that do not end up under water face dire famine due to drought.
4. The real end of the world will come on Earth, people will gnaw each other's throats because of food, of which very little will remain over time.
5. Few people will survive until the temperature reaches a critical level.

Magnetic pole displacement and where it will lead

This is another danger that threatens a person. The Earth has a powerful magnetic field, which has two pluses: north and south. These poles periodically move and even completely swap places 4 or 5 times. But there is no fixed information about this, only the structure of the Earth's surface proves it.

What if the poles turn around today?

First, most GPS satellites will fail. What does this threaten besides the loss of cellular communication? The fact that all planes, seagoing ships and trains on autopilots can crash when colliding with each other.

Secondly, the ozone layer of the Earth will be severely damaged. This layer protects living beings from the harmful effects of solar and cosmic radiation. It is difficult to predict the negative consequences of this, because even its thinning has led to an increase in cancer patients.

Third, there will be panic on Earth. Cellular communications, power grids, the Internet and much more, which already form the basis of modern life, will fail. For example, people who will be in hospitals and maternity hospitals may die because of this.

The bottom line is that if the reversal still occurs, then humanity will not die out, but it will suffer greatly, and its number will decrease. But when this will happen is difficult to predict in advance. More or less accurate forecasts will be no earlier than 10 years.

Climatic weapon, is it real?

There are also supporters of such a theory that this new climate weapon is weather.

Nikola Tesla developed similar theories in his works. He argued that when acting on the ionosphere, it is possible to control air flows and set their temperature.

America is suspected of this, the idea is supported by the fact that, being a Serb, in 1881 Tesla received US citizenship. He died in New York in 1941, and the archives of his work are classified to this day. Suspicions boil down to the fact that the weather is controlled by the Americans using the HAARP system. This sabotage is intended to undermine the economies of Russia and Europe. The goal, of course, is to seize power throughout the world.

But this theory has inconsistencies. For example, if these are the tricks of the Americans, then how do they allow such tornadoes and hurricanes on their territory? If they could control the weather, there would be no climatic anomalies in North America. And they happen all over the globe. Hurricanes such as Irma and Katrina claim thousands of American lives every decade.

Climate change projections for the next decade

Many are concerned about the question: is it not just flowers that is happening to the weather in 2017. According to scientists, in 10 years a summer heat of 35 ° C will become the norm for the central region of Eurasia. But in general, life there will not change much.

But countries close to the equator will suffer more. Temperatures there will become so high that water shortages will worsen. Crops will suffer, primarily corn, and then other cereals.

How will this affect a person in 100 years?

If humanity does not reduce its industrial fervor, then by the end of the 21st century the amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere will double. This will lead to the average temperature in central Russia being at least 30 ° C. Epidemics will rage all over the earth and will feel great in such a hot climate.

All this will lead to the melting of glaciers not only in Antarctica, but also in the Himalayas. This amount of melted ice will raise the level of the world's oceans and coastal cities will go under water.

How accurate these forecasts are depends on many factors, and it is possible that developed countries will come to their senses and understand that the lives of our children and grandchildren are too high a price to pay for lightning-fast progress.

If the worst predictions come true, will life remain on the planet?

The most interesting thing is that for the 21st century, starting from the Nativity of Christ, the 19th was the coldest, and then it began to warm. A rise in temperature alone will not kill a person. The scary thing is that it happens so quickly, it is not so easy to adapt to what is happening with the weather so quickly.

But if you look back and remember the level of science some 100 years ago, you can understand that what was considered impossible has become a reality. A person with such phenomenal intelligence is not easy to kill. Humanity is like a virus for the planet, which is not so easy to get rid of. People adapt very quickly.

Even if we assume that the temperature and radioactive background on Earth will rise to a critical level, and all people and animals will not adapt and will die out. But this does not mean that there will be no life on Earth. Flies are able to survive under radiation of 64,000 rad, scorpions are able to survive under the scorching sun and in the ice of Antarctica, amoebas hibernate under unfavorable conditions and wake up when they are over. Once upon a time dinosaurs ruled the planet, now people, perhaps in the future it will be a different species. The end for humanity is far from the end for the Earth.

IN Vologda region, the city of Vytegra, on July 14, the traditional forum "Society for Security" started. The main topic was the use of aviation technology in rescue operations in the Arctic. It was attended by teams of rescuers from different cities of Russia, heads of regional offices, as well as members of volunteer movements.

Among other things, the adviser to the President of Russia also spoke at the forum, who spoke about the reasons for the abnormal weather that could be observed in 2017. According to the expert, it will be repeated in the future with even greater frequency, and the reason for this is the warming in the Arctic.

“We see anomalous phenomena when the weather is unstable. 2017 is an example of such situations, which can be repeated more and more often, ”he said, speaking at the forum. Bedritsky explained that the temperature contrast between the poles and the equator is decreasing. “This leads to an increase in regional atmospheric processes... The area of \u200b\u200btemperature anomalies of ocean surfaces also contributes to the atmosphere of blocking processes, including in the Atlantic and European sectors, ”he said. As a result, the expert notes, and there is a sharp change in the weather.

When organizing events to ensure hydrometeorological and environmental safety, it is important to take into account the climatic factor, Bedritsky believes. "It the necessary conditionsin order to ensure the reduction of risks for the life of the population and for the conduct of rescue operations, ”he said.

He also set another important task for the forum participants: to study the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean and find out how it affects atmospheric cyclones.

Earlier, experts assessed the damage that Russian agrarians will incur due to the abnormally cold weather this year. As she wrote with reference to the National Union of Agricultural Insurers, the amount of damage could be up to 2.6 billion rubles. This was stated by the president of the organization. Of these, the insured can be from 0.6 to one billion rubles.

Far fewer farms have insured their crops this year than in the previous year. Because of this, experts suggest, these losses may be borne by the federal budget.

It is also noted that agricultural insurance was paralyzed due to the reform of the industry, in which a single regional subsidy for the agro-industrial complex was introduced. At the same time, the regulatory framework for the functioning of innovations has not been adopted.

Earlier, the specialists of the Phobos center noted that in the Moscow region the weather is about a month behind the calendar.

The abnormally cool weather has already set several records this summer. For example, the daily temperature in Moscow last month, June 15, turned out to be the lowest in the last 138 years - it corresponds to the indicators of the end of April.

The abnormally cold and rainy months were estimated to have pushed back the early harvest date. This caused inflation to deviate upwards from the forecast - by 0.1-0.2 percentage points.

This week, rainstorms hit Central and Eastern Europe, as well as northern Italy. In places a real storm was rising. Wind gusts the day before exceeded 25 m / s, and in mountainous areas, values \u200b\u200bof 30 or more meters per second were recorded.

The powerful Atlantic cyclone should be blamed for this situation. He has already managed to overtake Europe. For example, on July 12, over 20 mm of precipitation fell in Vilnius in half a day; the roads were flooded, transport links were partially paralyzed - buses and trolleybuses stopped; water even entered shopping centers.

Bad weather will linger in the capital until the end of the working week, although the rains will decrease in intensity. By Sunday, July 16, the amount of precipitation can be about 20-25 mm. But the temperature will be stable and within the July norm: +23 ... + 25 ° С.

In general, the summer of 2017 has already earned the epithet “abnormal” in terms of precipitation. For example, in June, in some places to the west of the Urals, the norm dropped for both June itself and July and August. The capital is not far behind. So, on June 30, 65 mm of precipitation fell in the city, which amounted to 84% of the monthly norm. The rain became the heaviest for June 30 on record in the capital - the previous record with 62.5 mm rainfall was set in 1970. June 2017 ranked second among the wettest first months of summer, with 139 mm of rainfall this year (180% of the monthly norm), and 162 mm in June 1991. Note that records for precipitation in Moscow have been set for the last four months, starting in March 2017.

May snow from the window of a Facebook user in Murmansk

“In the morning, Facebook greeted me, asking if I was ready for the snow in the city ... I thought for a while ... My blue down jacket hung all winter in the closet. At the end of April, I pulled it out and put it on for an evening walk and have been wearing it every day ever since. Having sipped a sip of hot Russiano, I thought that I was probably ready for anything. I don’t have summer tires anyway, but you can still ride winter tires until next winter ”, - this is how the user Sergey Pogodin jokingly puts forward the version: May snow is a consequence of climate weapons.

“I heard that in Moscow the heating was turned on again, but here, thank God, it has not been turned off yet. Maybe the Americans are testing climate weapons on us? But even so, this will not take us! " - Pogodin photographs the snowy May Murmansk.

"As you wish, but I think that climate weapons were used against us!" - echoes to him Irina Frolova (Moscow).

"I'm also starting to believe in climate weapons" - writes Muscovite Anna Sholina and attaches a video with a snowfall ...

First, several people a day, but now every hour new sane people announce to their friends about the transition to the camp of conspiracy theorists. “Where to read about climate weapons? (here is a smiley) "

The chronicle can be observed in search results by key phrase.

The difference between these reports does not even lie in the resident of which region of Russia considers himself a victim of a military experiment. And who used the weapon: after all, we - or the Americans?

"Novaya Gazeta" asked to participate in the discussion of this version of people who, in principle, do not deny the existence of climate weapons. Unfortunately, even they have no doubts: the current cold snap and snow in May can in no way be associated with its use.

Evgeny Tishkovets

leading specialist of the FOBOS weather center

- Is it possible to influence the weather with the help of special weapons? Of course available.

“But this whole topic has long been closed. Only Americans still sometimes indulge in it. And yet, what is happening now in Moscow fits into the framework of our climate. "